How many tourists come, and what does it mean for your investment?

Headlines help, but profitability is built in the micro-area and in how you convert tourist flow into occupancy and ADR (Average Daily Rate). Below: key 2024 figures and how to use them in decisions.

2024 snapshot

• Quintana Roo 2024: ~21.0 million overnight tourists. Sustained national leadership.
• Yucatán 2024: ~2.40 million overnight visitors, with Mérida taking most of the share.
  
• Mexican Caribbean Q1-2024: 5.42M tourists, average hotel occupancy 81.6%.

How to turn flow into business numbers

• Segment by season. Break the year into high, shoulder, and low. Set occupancy targets by block, not a single annual average.
• ADR by unit type and micro-area. Your real comp set lives within 500–800 m and matches your amenities.
• RevPAR and stress test. RevPAR = ADR × Occupancy. Run ±10% scenarios on demand and operating costs.
  
• Future supply. Track 12–24-month deliveries in your neighborhood; new stock pressures ADR before occupancy.
  

Signals that actually move the needle

• Air connectivity. New routes lift peaks and extend shoulder season. Airport data (ASUR) is a good early indicator.
• Building rules. STR (Short-Term Rental) permission determines whether you can rent nightly. Get it in writing.

Quick numeric example

• High: 90 nights × 75% × ADR $2,200 = $148,500
  
• Shoulder: 120 nights × 60% × ADR $1,900 = $136,800
  
• Low: 155 nights × 35% × ADR $1,400 = $75,950
  Estimated gross: $361,250 MXN. Subtract cleaning, utilities, management, and replacements to get your P&L (Profit & Loss).

Checklist to operationalize

• Define seasons and target occupancy/ADR per block.
• Build a 12-month cash-flow with ±10% demand and cost scenarios.
• Verify HOA rules on STR, noise, and guest policies.
• Map your comp set and track pricing weekly.
• Monitor pipeline within 1 km for supply shocks.

Glossary

• ADR: Average nightly rate in a period.
• Occupancy: Sold nights ÷ available nights.
• RevPAR: ADR × Occupancy.
• STR: Short-term rental (nightly/weekly hospitality-style rental).
• P&L: Profit and Loss statement.